Slide 9 of 20

Figure 1.4.a. Time series of the precipitation results of 100 SCM runs (black lines) versus observational data (red line) for 18 July-3 August 1995 ARM SGP IOP are shown here. Each of the SCM runs was initialized with a temperature sounding that was perturbed slightly, at random; all other initialization and prescription data were identical for each run. The SCM was driven using horizontal advective forcing ("vertical flux mode"). Note the onset of precipitation observed just after day 8 differs in individual SCM runs by as much as one day.